To Brexit or not to Brexit?

The referendum announced last week by the British Prime Minister David Cameron immediately led to lines being drawn and allies being sought in the corridors of power. 23rd June is the date which means we'll have a lot more sniping and political manoeuvring as individual politicians decide which side they want to support and we'll have a lot more 'analysis' from media types who try and explain why so-and-so has decided in what way they have.

Image taken from here

If you're into this sort of thing it makes for fascinatingly great reading/listening as individual and personal ambitions override, get conflated or get confused with national responsibility. Almost like a real-life Game of Thrones except there's an even wider range of characters and plots are even more convoluted. Naturally, it's expected that politicians and business leaders will make noise over the issue but it seems like everyone and their mother will want their view heard. Just today we had some scientists who want to stay in and some who want to get out.

In many respects the arguments for and against are very similar to those we heard in the Scottish Independence referendum. Very simply Leave the Union and it's all either uncertain or a reclamation of our nation or stay in the Union and prosper as you have been or be forever bound to your foreign overlords. In the Scottish referendum the Stay campaign won and life generally continued as before except in a moment of panic the British government proposed to implement a whole raft of policies which would benefit Scotland - though as I write I'm unsure if these have been followed through. I suspect not entirely.

I expect similar for the EU referendum. Up until now David Cameron has been using the threat of Brexit to help in re-negotiating the treaty that keeps the UK in the EU. Having now concluded the negotiations he has to deliver his side of the bargain and keep the country in. So he'll make his case and the Leave campaign will make theirs and with every passing day the arguments will become more and more hyperbolic and doom-mongering and end up confusing most of the populace who will get annoyed and I think will end up voting along two lines:

• Stay in for continued economic security.
• Leave and bravely reclaim your country.

I'm not seeing these are correct claims (we saw them used in the Scottish Referendum as well). We'd probably have just as much continued economic security outside the EU and we'd still have to deal with Europe for trade and politics even if we did leave. But I think it's too much to ask for the average voter to care enough to read every single viewpoint and come up with a reasoned and balanced view. People vote for government (or at least have a government) so we don't have all have to deal with the politics of power and can free up time to be productive instead. Either way, there will be lots of spin on both sides as each attempts to persuade but it's worth remembering that since neither side actually knows what the future holds it's all a lot of bluster and bluff and people saying what they think is best - not what they know is best. I fully expect that after the vote people on different sides will point to events that happen and use them as proof their side was correct - hindsight is a wonderful thing.

So anyway, I'm calling a 65-35 vote in favour of staying in. From what little I've seen and read of the world, I'd say people care more for their perceived economic status than their perceived independence. As yet I'm undecided which one I care more about but certainly I'll be voting!

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